The good news is that Republicans are in the catbird seat in the 2022 midterm elections and could easily control both the House and the Senate. The bad news is that George Soros will still control the Oval Office. This is according to the Five-Thirty-Eight prediction site.
The first thing you must take into account is that 538 always underestimates Republican voters. Therefore, as you read the numbers they are putting out, you might want to keep that fact in mind.
FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver described a tense situation for Democrats, noting that the Democrats will have to hold almost all the seats they have and maybe pick up one or two to continue to hold the Senate.
But, holding the Senate only helps the Democrats in confirming appointments, but you can expect a lot of vacancies after the midterm as no one wants to stay on a sinking ship.
The importance of gaining control of the Senate is 2024. The Senate races that year favors Republicans. This will help them overcome the votes of the RINOs such as Mitt Romney, although it is my hope that he either not runs in 2024 or that he loses badly in the primary.
Nate Silver said:
“[T]he current picture leaves Democrats without much margin to spare. Unless they can pull off an upset in North Carolina, Ohio, or Wisconsin, Democrats will need to win two of the three closest Senate races – Georgia, Pennsylvania,
and Nevada – in order to maintain their majority, while also holding Arizona and New Hampshire.”
Some qualifications on this, and more in some races than others, but our Deluxe model expects Republicans to outperform their current polling by ~2 points or so in the average Congressional race.https://t.co/znlDdARdJB
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 28, 2022
Silver continues:
“Unlike in the Senate, Democrats will have to do more than just win the majority of toss-up races to control the House,” Silver wrote. “Even if Democrats won all the toss-ups, it wouldn’t quite be enough. To keep the House, Democrats will need for our model to be systemically underestimating them.”
There is more bad news for Democrats in other polling nationwide. Voters are increasingly concerned about the economy. And the simple fact is that voters trust Republicans with the purse strings more than Democrats by a wide margin. A recent Morning Consult/Politico poll found that 93% of voters are worried about inflation. 75% of Democrats say that inflation and the economy would play a major part in their decision of who to vote for. That same poll found that voters trusted Republicans on that issue by a count of 46% to 37%. That is a huge gap.
FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver described a tense situation for Democrats, writing that the party can’t afford to lose in several key states if they hope to hold the Senate.
Silver began by noting Republicans have a 48% chance of taking the Senate, putting the Senate “officially in toss-up territory.” Silver then wrote that, while some polls show “good news for Democrats,” Republicans have plenty of reasons for optimism.
A separate poll conducted by Trafalgar Group/Convention of States Action found 58.9% of respondents believe a Democrat-controlled Congress would hurt the economy compared to 41.1% who think it would improve the economy.
